Focşani 2–0 Muscelul Câmpulung Elite

Focşani

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Muscelul Câmpulung Elite

8/3/2024

Liga II · Round 1Stadionul Milcovul

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Focşani65%

×Draw22%

Muscelul Câmpulung Elite13%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FocşaniExpected goals in this matchMuscelul Câmpulung Elite

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.84

0.68

Focşani

1.84

Muscelul Câmpulung Elite

0.68

Focşani creates 171% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 28 away

0.86

creates per match

0.36

1.00

allows per match

2.82

creates per match

Focşani

0.86

Muscelul Câmpulung Elite

0.36

allows per match

Focşani

1.00

Muscelul Câmpulung Elite

2.82

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Focşani+0.00on par

Muscelul Câmpulung Elite+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Focşani ↓

Muscelul Câmpulung Elite →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–15%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–110%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–16%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Focşani or draw

87%

Focşani or Muscelul Câmpulung Elite

78%

Draw or Muscelul Câmpulung Elite

35%

Winning margin

Focşani wins by 2+

39%

Muscelul Câmpulung Elite wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Focşani 1+ goals

84%

Focşani 2+ goals

55%

Focşani 3+ goals

28%

Muscelul Câmpulung Elite 1+ goals

49%

Muscelul Câmpulung Elite 2+ goals

15%

Muscelul Câmpulung Elite 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Focşani (draw refunded)

83%

Muscelul Câmpulung Elite (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Focşani at home — creates 0.86, concedes 1.00 · 14 matches

Muscelul Câmpulung Elite away — creates 0.36, concedes 2.82 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Focşani attack 0.86 + Muscelul Câmpulung Elite defence 2.82 → ÷2 → 1.84

Muscelul Câmpulung Elite attack 0.36 + Focşani defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Focşani scores more

65%

level

22%

Muscelul Câmpulung Elite scores more

13%

Focşani at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Focşani will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga II: Focşani 2–0 Muscelul Câmpulung Elite

Focşani beat Muscelul Câmpulung Elite 2-0 in Liga II on August 3, 2024.

The match was played at Stadionul Milcovul in Focşani.

Focşani vs Muscelul Câmpulung Elite — Liga II 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Liga II: Focşani 2–0 Muscelul Câmpulung Elite