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Focşani vs CSM Ramnicu Valcea — Liga III - Play-offs 2022

Focşani
Focşaniadvanced
AET
3 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
CSM Ramnicu Valcea
CSM Ramnicu Valcea
6/12/2024Liga III - Play-offsLiga III - Play-offs · Play-offs - Semi-finalsStadionul Milcovul

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Focşani52%
×Draw27%
CSM Ramnicu Valcea21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Focşani
1.44
CSM Ramnicu Valcea
0.79

Focşani creates 82% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 8 away

creates per match

Focşani
2.00
CSM Ramnicu Valcea
1.25

allows per match

Focşani
0.33
CSM Ramnicu Valcea
0.88

finishing

Focşani+0.00on par
CSM Ramnicu Valcea+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Focşani ↓

CSM Ramnicu Valcea →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Focşani or draw
79%
Focşani or CSM Ramnicu Valcea
73%
Draw or CSM Ramnicu Valcea
48%

Winning margin

Focşani wins by 2+
26%
CSM Ramnicu Valcea wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Focşani 1+ goals
76%
Focşani 2+ goals
42%
Focşani 3+ goals
18%
CSM Ramnicu Valcea 1+ goals
55%
CSM Ramnicu Valcea 2+ goals
19%
CSM Ramnicu Valcea 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Focşani (draw refunded)
72%
CSM Ramnicu Valcea (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Focşani at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.33 · 3 matches

CSM Ramnicu Valcea away — creates 1.25, concedes 0.88 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Focşani attack 2.00 + CSM Ramnicu Valcea defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.44

CSM Ramnicu Valcea attack 1.25 + Focşani defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Focşani scores more
52%
level
27%
CSM Ramnicu Valcea scores more
21%

Focşani at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Focşani will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga III - Play-offs: Focşani 3–2 CSM Ramnicu Valcea

Focşani beat CSM Ramnicu Valcea 3-2 in Liga III - Play-offs on June 12, 2024.

The match was played at Stadionul Milcovul in Focşani.