Focşani 2–0 CS Dinamo București: Result & Stats

Focşani

FT

2 – 0

CS Dinamo București

6/15/2024

Liga III - Play-offs · Play-offs - FinalStadionul Milcovul

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Focşani50%

×Draw23%

CS Dinamo București27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FocşaniExpected goals in this matchCS Dinamo București

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.80

1.27

Focşani

1.80

CS Dinamo București

1.27

Focşani creates 42% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 5 away

2.00

creates per match

2.20

0.33

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Focşani

2.00

CS Dinamo București

2.20

allows per match

Focşani

0.33

CS Dinamo București

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Focşani+0.00on par

CS Dinamo București+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Focşani ↓

CS Dinamo București →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Focşani or draw

73%

Focşani or CS Dinamo București

77%

Draw or CS Dinamo București

50%

Winning margin

Focşani wins by 2+

27%

CS Dinamo București wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Focşani 1+ goals

83%

Focşani 2+ goals

54%

Focşani 3+ goals

27%

CS Dinamo București 1+ goals

72%

CS Dinamo București 2+ goals

36%

CS Dinamo București 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Focşani (draw refunded)

65%

CS Dinamo București (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Focşani at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.33 · 3 matches

CS Dinamo București away — creates 2.20, concedes 1.60 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Focşani attack 2.00 + CS Dinamo București defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.80

CS Dinamo București attack 2.20 + Focşani defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Focşani scores more

50%

level

23%

CS Dinamo București scores more

27%

Focşani at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Focşani will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff