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Fluminense vs Sao Paulo — Serie A 2026

Fluminense
Fluminense
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Sao Paulo
Sao Paulo
11/23/2023Serie ASerie A · Round 32Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 18+ matches

Fluminense53%
×Draw25%
Sao Paulo22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fluminense
1.58
Sao Paulo
0.92

Fluminense creates 72% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 18 away

creates per match

Fluminense
1.61
Sao Paulo
0.85

allows per match

Fluminense
0.98
Sao Paulo
1.54

finishing

Fluminense-0.01on par
Sao Paulo-0.02on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fluminense ↓

Sao Paulo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Fluminense or draw
78%
Fluminense or Sao Paulo
75%
Draw or Sao Paulo
47%

Winning margin

Fluminense wins by 2+
28%
Sao Paulo wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Fluminense 1+ goals
79%
Fluminense 2+ goals
47%
Fluminense 3+ goals
21%
Sao Paulo 1+ goals
60%
Sao Paulo 2+ goals
23%
Sao Paulo 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Fluminense (draw refunded)
71%
Sao Paulo (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fluminense at home — creates 1.61, concedes 0.98 · 20 matches

Sao Paulo away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.54 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fluminense attack 1.61 + Sao Paulo defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.58

Sao Paulo attack 0.85 + Fluminense defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Fluminense scores more
53%
level
25%
Sao Paulo scores more
22%

Fluminense at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Fluminense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie A: Fluminense 1–0 Sao Paulo

Fluminense beat Sao Paulo 1-0 in Serie A on November 23, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho in Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro.