Fluminense 2–1 Sao Paulo: Result & Stats | Serie A

Fluminense

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Sao Paulo

A. Canobbio 44'

John Kennedy 19'

Matheus Doria 79'

5/16/2026

Serie A · Round 16Estádio do Maracanã

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 17+ matches

Fluminense54%

×Draw25%

Sao Paulo21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FluminenseExpected goals in this matchSao Paulo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

0.91

Fluminense

1.60

Sao Paulo

0.91

Fluminense creates 76% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 17 away

1.61

creates per match

0.83

0.98

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

Fluminense

1.61

Sao Paulo

0.83

allows per match

Fluminense

0.98

Sao Paulo

1.59

-0.01on par

finishing

-0.01on par

finishing

Fluminense-0.01on par

Sao Paulo-0.01on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fluminense ↓

Sao Paulo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Fluminense or draw

79%

Fluminense or Sao Paulo

75%

Draw or Sao Paulo

46%

Winning margin

Fluminense wins by 2+

28%

Sao Paulo wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Fluminense 1+ goals

80%

Fluminense 2+ goals

47%

Fluminense 3+ goals

22%

Sao Paulo 1+ goals

60%

Sao Paulo 2+ goals

23%

Sao Paulo 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Fluminense (draw refunded)

71%

Sao Paulo (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fluminense at home — creates 1.61, concedes 0.98 · 20 matches

Sao Paulo away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.59 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fluminense attack 1.61 + Sao Paulo defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.60

Sao Paulo attack 0.83 + Fluminense defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Fluminense scores more

54%

level

25%

Sao Paulo scores more

21%

Fluminense at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Fluminense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17

A. Canobbio

Fluminense · M

7.9

Match Events

19'

John Kennedy↳ Guilherme Arana

30'

André Silva

44'

A. Canobbio↳ L. Acosta

61'

K. Serna← L. Acosta

61'

R. Castillo← John Kennedy

64'

Ferreira← Cauly

67'

Artur

76'

Enzo Díaz

76'

Luan Silva← Wendell

77'

G. Tapia← Andre Silva

79'

Matheus Doria↳ Sabino

83'

Y. Soteldo← A. Canobbio

83'

F. Bernal← Nonato

86'

90+8'

90+6'

90'

90+5'

C. Soares← Lucas Ramon

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FluminenseSao

Overview

50%Possession50%

10Total Shots14

1.48Expected Goals (xG)0.92

3Corners5

13Fouls10

Shots

10Total Shots14

3On Target7

5Off Target4

2Blocked3

8Inside Box8

2Outside Box6

Passing

50%Possession50%

473Total Passes468

394Accurate Passes386

83%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

6Saves1

0.34Goals Prevented0.34

Discipline

13Fouls10

2Yellow Cards5

1Offsides1