Fluminense 2–2 Gremio: Result & Stats | Serie A

Fluminense

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Gremio

Kauã Elias 66'

J. Arias 43'

Reinaldo 90+9' (pen)

M. Braithwaite 26'

11/2/2024

Serie A · Round 32Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 18+ matches

Fluminense59%

×Draw23%

Gremio19%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FluminenseExpected goals in this matchGremio

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.84

0.93

Fluminense

1.84

Gremio

0.93

Fluminense creates 98% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 19 away

1.63

creates per match

0.84

1.02

allows per match

2.06

creates per match

Fluminense

1.63

Gremio

0.84

allows per match

Fluminense

1.02

Gremio

2.06

+0.04on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fluminense+0.04on par

Gremio+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fluminense ↓

Gremio →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Fluminense or draw

81%

Fluminense or Gremio

77%

Draw or Gremio

41%

Winning margin

Fluminense wins by 2+

34%

Gremio wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Fluminense 1+ goals

84%

Fluminense 2+ goals

55%

Fluminense 3+ goals

28%

Gremio 1+ goals

61%

Gremio 2+ goals

24%

Gremio 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Fluminense (draw refunded)

76%

Gremio (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fluminense at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.02 · 18 matches

Gremio away — creates 0.84, concedes 2.06 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fluminense attack 1.63 + Gremio defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.84

Gremio attack 0.84 + Fluminense defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Fluminense scores more

59%

level

23%

Gremio scores more

19%

Fluminense at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Fluminense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

45

Lima

Fluminense · M

7.9

Match Events

26'

M. Braithwaite

31'

Y. Soteldo

36'

M. Braithwaite

43'

J. Arias↳ Ganso

45'

Reinaldo

45+3'

Martinelli

45+4'

PH Ganso

66'

Kauã Elias↳ Lima

67'

F. Bernal← Martinelli

68'

Nathan Fernandes← A. Aravena

68'

Diego Costa← M. Braithwaite

68'

F. Cristaldo← Edenílson

76'

Kaua Elias

78'

G. Cano← Kauã Elias

79'

Nonato← Ganso

82'

M. Monsalve← Y. Soteldo

82'

M. Arezo← Dodi

89'

90+6'

90+7'

90+8'

90+10'

90'

Marquinhos← Keno

90+1'

John Kennedy← Lima

90+9'

ReinaldoPenalty

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FluminenseGremio

Overview

62%Possession38%

18Total Shots7

2.39Expected Goals (xG)1.73

8Corners2

15Fouls14

Shots

18Total Shots7

7On Target4

7Off Target2

4Blocked1

11Inside Box4

7Outside Box3

Passing

62%Possession38%

558Total Passes339

489Accurate Passes273

88%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

1Saves5

0.95Goals Prevented0.95

Discipline

15Fouls14

6Yellow Cards4

1Red Cards0

4Offsides0