Fluminense 2–1 Fortaleza EC: Result & Stats

Fluminense

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Fortaleza EC

A. Canobbio 64'

G. Cano 9'

Breno Lopes 73'

8/16/2025

Serie A · Round 20Estádio do Maracanã

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 42+ matches

Fluminense50%

×Draw26%

Fortaleza EC24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FluminenseExpected goals in this matchFortaleza EC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.53

0.96

Fluminense

1.53

Fortaleza EC

0.96

Fluminense creates 59% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 42 away

1.44

creates per match

1.05

0.87

allows per match

1.62

creates per match

Fluminense

1.44

Fortaleza EC

1.05

allows per match

Fluminense

0.87

Fortaleza EC

1.62

+0.08on par

finishing

+0.02on par

finishing

Fluminense+0.08on par

Fortaleza EC+0.02on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fluminense ↓

Fortaleza EC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Fluminense or draw

76%

Fluminense or Fortaleza EC

74%

Draw or Fortaleza EC

50%

Winning margin

Fluminense wins by 2+

26%

Fortaleza EC wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Fluminense 1+ goals

78%

Fluminense 2+ goals

45%

Fluminense 3+ goals

20%

Fortaleza EC 1+ goals

62%

Fortaleza EC 2+ goals

25%

Fortaleza EC 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Fluminense (draw refunded)

68%

Fortaleza EC (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fluminense at home — creates 1.44, concedes 0.87 · 44 matches

Fortaleza EC away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.62 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fluminense attack 1.44 + Fortaleza EC defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.53

Fortaleza EC attack 1.05 + Fluminense defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Fluminense scores more

50%

level

26%

Fortaleza EC scores more

24%

Fluminense at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Fluminense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

90

K. Serna

Fluminense · M

8.9

Match Events

-5'

Breno Lopes

9'

G. Cano↳ K. Serna

24'

A. Canobbio← Keno

43'

Kervin Andrade

45+5'

Matheus Martinelli

45+4'

Matheus MartinelliPenalty cancelled

45+2'

Emanuel Brítez

46'

Lucca Prior← K. Andrade

55'

Facundo Bernal

57'

Juan Martín Lucero

63'

Deyverson← J. Lucero

63'

Breno Lopes← J. Herrera

64'

A. Canobbio↳ K. Serna

67'

Hercules← Martinelli

73'

Allanzinho← Yago Pikachu

73'

Breno Lopes↳ Allanzinho

80'

Everaldo← G. Cano

80'

Lima← PH Ganso

86'

A. Bareiro← Matheus Rossetto

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FluminenseFortaleza

Overview

43%Possession57%

10Total Shots12

0.92Expected Goals (xG)1.95

2Corners6

10Fouls18

Shots

10Total Shots12

3On Target5

4Off Target3

3Blocked4

7Inside Box8

3Outside Box4

Passing

43%Possession57%

393Total Passes515

319Accurate Passes445

81%Pass Accuracy86%

Goalkeeping

5Saves1

-0.27Goals Prevented-0.27

Discipline

10Fouls18

2Yellow Cards4

0Offsides1