Fluminense 2–1 Bolívar: Result & Stats

Fluminense

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Bolívar

John Kennedy 71'

L. Acosta 6'

C. A. Melgar 24'

5/19/2026

CONMEBOL Libertadores · Group Stage - 5Estádio do Maracanã

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Fluminense64%

×Draw24%

Bolívar11%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FluminenseExpected goals in this matchBolívar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

0.49

Fluminense

1.58

Bolívar

0.49

Fluminense creates 222% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 7 away

1.36

creates per match

0.45

0.53

allows per match

1.81

creates per match

Fluminense

1.36

Bolívar

0.45

allows per match

Fluminense

0.53

Bolívar

1.81

+0.44scores more than expected

finishing

+0.12scores more than expected

finishing

Fluminense+0.44scores more

Bolívar+0.12scores more

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No69
Yes31

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fluminense ↓

Bolívar →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–16%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–020%

1–110%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–016%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Fluminense or draw

89%

Fluminense or Bolívar

76%

Draw or Bolívar

36%

Winning margin

Fluminense wins by 2+

36%

Bolívar wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Fluminense 1+ goals

79%

Fluminense 2+ goals

47%

Fluminense 3+ goals

21%

Bolívar 1+ goals

39%

Bolívar 2+ goals

9%

Bolívar 3+ goals

1%

Draw no bet

Fluminense (draw refunded)

85%

Bolívar (draw refunded)

15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

21%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fluminense at home — creates 1.36, concedes 0.53 · 5 matches

Bolívar away — creates 0.45, concedes 1.81 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fluminense attack 1.36 + Bolívar defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.58

Bolívar attack 0.45 + Fluminense defence 0.53 → ÷2 → 0.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Fluminense scores more

64%

level

24%

Bolívar scores more

11%

Fluminense at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Fluminense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

C. Lampe

Bolívar · G

8.2

Match Events

-5'

John Kennedy

6'

L. Acosta

13'

Juan Pablo Freytes

24'

C. A. Melgar↳ D. Romero

31'

43'

44'

49'

60'

Y. Soteldo← A. Canobbio

60'

R. Castillo← Nonato

67'

E. Vaca Moreno← C. A. Melgar

71'

John Kennedy

72'

Samuel Xavier← Guga

72'

G. Cano← John Kennedy

75'

L. L. Chavez Cruz← Pato Rodriguez

77'

PH Ganso← J. Savarino

82'

Ganso

87'

L. Paz← J. Sagredo

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FluminenseBolívar

Overview

74%Possession26%

24Total Shots5

2.26Expected Goals (xG)0.20

5Corners1

14Fouls9

Shots

24Total Shots5

8On Target2

13Off Target3

3Blocked1

19Inside Box3

5Outside Box2

Passing

74%Possession26%

630Total Passes225

567Accurate Passes158

90%Pass Accuracy70%

Goalkeeping

1Saves6

1.26Goals Prevented1.26

Discipline

14Fouls9

5Yellow Cards2

3Offsides0

CONMEBOL Libertadores: Fluminense 2–1 Bolívar

Fluminense beat Bolívar 2-1 in CONMEBOL Libertadores on May 19, 2026.

Goals: L. Acosta (6'), C. A. Melgar (24'), John Kennedy (71').

Fluminense controlled possession (74%) and registered 24 shots to 5.

The match was played at Estádio do Maracanã in Rio de Janeiro.

Fluminense vs Bolívar — CONMEBOL Libertadores 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CONMEBOL Libertadores: Fluminense 2–1 Bolívar