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Fluminense vs Al Ahly — FIFA Club World Cup 2019

Fluminense
Fluminenseadvanced
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Al Ahly
Al Ahly
12/18/2023FIFA Club World CupFIFA Club World Cup · Semi-finalsKing Abdullah Sports City

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Fluminense41%
×Draw25%
Al Ahly34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fluminense
1.55
Al Ahly
1.38

Fluminense creates 12% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 8 away

creates per match

Fluminense
1.60
Al Ahly
1.75

allows per match

Fluminense
1.00
Al Ahly
1.50

finishing

Fluminense+0.00on par
Al Ahly+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fluminense ↓

Al Ahly →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Fluminense or draw
66%
Fluminense or Al Ahly
75%
Draw or Al Ahly
59%

Winning margin

Fluminense wins by 2+
21%
Al Ahly wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Fluminense 1+ goals
79%
Fluminense 2+ goals
46%
Fluminense 3+ goals
20%
Al Ahly 1+ goals
75%
Al Ahly 2+ goals
40%
Al Ahly 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Fluminense (draw refunded)
55%
Al Ahly (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fluminense at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

Al Ahly away — creates 1.75, concedes 1.50 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fluminense attack 1.60 + Al Ahly defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.55

Al Ahly attack 1.75 + Fluminense defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Fluminense scores more
41%
level
25%
Al Ahly scores more
34%

Fluminense at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Fluminense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FIFA Club World Cup: Fluminense 2–0 Al Ahly

Fluminense beat Al Ahly 2-0 in FIFA Club World Cup on December 18, 2023.

The match was played at King Abdullah Sports City in Jeddah.