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Fluminense U20 vs São Paulo U20 — Brasileiro U20 A 2026

Fluminense U20
Fluminense U20
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
São Paulo U20
São Paulo U20
Unknown 87'
Unknown 68' (OG)
R. Francisco 7'
8/21/2024Brasileiro U20 ABrasileiro U20 A · 1st Phase - 19CT Vale Laranjeiras

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Fluminense U2047%
×Draw24%
São Paulo U2029%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fluminense U20
1.66
São Paulo U20
1.25

Fluminense U20 creates 33% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 59 away

creates per match

Fluminense U20
1.52
São Paulo U20
1.59

allows per match

Fluminense U20
0.90
São Paulo U20
1.80

finishing

Fluminense U20+0.00on par
São Paulo U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 56Under: 4456%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 58No: 4258%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fluminense U20 ↓

São Paulo U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Fluminense U20 or draw
71%
Fluminense U20 or São Paulo U20
76%
Draw or São Paulo U20
53%

Winning margin

Fluminense U20 wins by 2+
25%
São Paulo U20 wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Fluminense U20 1+ goals
81%
Fluminense U20 2+ goals
49%
Fluminense U20 3+ goals
23%
São Paulo U20 1+ goals
71%
São Paulo U20 2+ goals
36%
São Paulo U20 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Fluminense U20 (draw refunded)
62%
São Paulo U20 (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fluminense U20 at home — creates 1.52, concedes 0.90 · 58 matches

São Paulo U20 away — creates 1.59, concedes 1.80 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fluminense U20 attack 1.52 + São Paulo U20 defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.66

São Paulo U20 attack 1.59 + Fluminense U20 defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Fluminense U20 scores more
47%
level
24%
São Paulo U20 scores more
29%

Fluminense U20 at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Fluminense U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'
R. Francisco
68'
Own goal
87'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Fluminense U20 vs São Paulo U20

São Paulo U20 beat Fluminense U20 2-1 in Brasileiro U20 A on August 21, 2024.

Goals: R. Francisco (7'), ? (68' o.g., 87').

The match was played at CT Vale Laranjeiras in Duque de Caxias, Rio de Janeiro.