Fluminense U17 3–0 Santos U17: Result & Stats

Fluminense U17

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Santos U17

5/29/2026

Brasileiro U17 · Round 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Fluminense U1758%

×Draw22%

Santos U1720%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fluminense U17Expected goals in this matchSantos U17

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.95

1.07

Fluminense U17

1.95

Santos U17

1.07

Fluminense U17 creates 82% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 21 away

2.14

creates per match

1.38

0.76

allows per match

1.76

creates per match

Fluminense U17

2.14

Santos U17

1.38

allows per match

Fluminense U17

0.76

Santos U17

1.76

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fluminense U17+0.00on par

Santos U17+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fluminense U17 ↓

Santos U17 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Fluminense U17 or draw

80%

Fluminense U17 or Santos U17

78%

Draw or Santos U17

42%

Winning margin

Fluminense U17 wins by 2+

34%

Santos U17 wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Fluminense U17 1+ goals

86%

Fluminense U17 2+ goals

58%

Fluminense U17 3+ goals

31%

Santos U17 1+ goals

66%

Santos U17 2+ goals

29%

Santos U17 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Fluminense U17 (draw refunded)

74%

Santos U17 (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fluminense U17 at home — creates 2.14, concedes 0.76 · 21 matches

Santos U17 away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.76 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fluminense U17 attack 2.14 + Santos U17 defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.95

Santos U17 attack 1.38 + Fluminense U17 defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Fluminense U17 scores more

58%

level

22%

Santos U17 scores more

20%

Fluminense U17 at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Fluminense U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff