Fluminense U17 2–1 RB Bragantino U17

Fluminense U17

FT

2 – 1

RB Bragantino U17

7/3/2024

Brasileiro U17 · Group Stage - 1CT Vale Laranjeiras

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Fluminense U1749%

×Draw23%

RB Bragantino U1728%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fluminense U17Expected goals in this matchRB Bragantino U17

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.85

1.35

Fluminense U17

1.85

RB Bragantino U17

1.35

Fluminense U17 creates 37% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 20 away

2.14

creates per match

1.95

0.76

allows per match

1.55

creates per match

Fluminense U17

2.14

RB Bragantino U17

1.95

allows per match

Fluminense U17

0.76

RB Bragantino U17

1.55

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fluminense U17+0.00on par

RB Bragantino U17+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fluminense U17 ↓

RB Bragantino U17 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Fluminense U17 or draw

72%

Fluminense U17 or RB Bragantino U17

77%

Draw or RB Bragantino U17

51%

Winning margin

Fluminense U17 wins by 2+

27%

RB Bragantino U17 wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Fluminense U17 1+ goals

84%

Fluminense U17 2+ goals

55%

Fluminense U17 3+ goals

28%

RB Bragantino U17 1+ goals

74%

RB Bragantino U17 2+ goals

39%

RB Bragantino U17 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Fluminense U17 (draw refunded)

64%

RB Bragantino U17 (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fluminense U17 at home — creates 2.14, concedes 0.76 · 21 matches

RB Bragantino U17 away — creates 1.95, concedes 1.55 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fluminense U17 attack 2.14 + RB Bragantino U17 defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.85

RB Bragantino U17 attack 1.95 + Fluminense U17 defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Fluminense U17 scores more

49%

level

23%

RB Bragantino U17 scores more

28%

Fluminense U17 at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Fluminense U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff