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Fluminense U17 vs Gremio U17 — Brasileiro U17 2026

Fluminense U17
Fluminense U17
FT
3 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Gremio U17
Gremio U17
7/14/2026Brasileiro U17Brasileiro U17 · Round 8

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Fluminense U1765%
×Draw19%
Gremio U1716%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fluminense U17
2.31
Gremio U17
1.04

Fluminense U17 creates 122% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 19 away

creates per match

Fluminense U17
2.14
Gremio U17
1.32

allows per match

Fluminense U17
0.76
Gremio U17
2.47

finishing

Fluminense U17+0.00on par
Gremio U17+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 65Under: 3565%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 58No: 4258%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fluminense U17 ↓

Gremio U17 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–24%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Fluminense U17 or draw
84%
Fluminense U17 or Gremio U17
81%
Draw or Gremio U17
35%

Winning margin

Fluminense U17 wins by 2+
43%
Gremio U17 wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Fluminense U17 1+ goals
90%
Fluminense U17 2+ goals
67%
Fluminense U17 3+ goals
40%
Gremio U17 1+ goals
65%
Gremio U17 2+ goals
28%
Gremio U17 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Fluminense U17 (draw refunded)
81%
Gremio U17 (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fluminense U17 at home — creates 2.14, concedes 0.76 · 21 matches

Gremio U17 away — creates 1.32, concedes 2.47 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fluminense U17 attack 2.14 + Gremio U17 defence 2.47 → ÷2 → 2.31

Gremio U17 attack 1.32 + Fluminense U17 defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Fluminense U17 scores more
65%
level
19%
Gremio U17 scores more
16%

Fluminense U17 at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Fluminense U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Fluminense U17 vs Gremio U17

Fluminense U17 beat Gremio U17 3-0 in Brasileiro U17 on July 14, 2026.