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Fluminense U17 vs Fortaleza U17 — Brasileiro U17 2026

Fluminense U17
Fluminense U17
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Fortaleza U17
Fortaleza U17
6/10/2026Brasileiro U17Brasileiro U17 · Round 3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Fluminense U1767%
×Draw19%
Fortaleza U1713%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fluminense U17
2.10
Fortaleza U17
0.79

Fluminense U17 creates 166% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 18 away

creates per match

Fluminense U17
2.14
Fortaleza U17
0.83

allows per match

Fluminense U17
0.76
Fortaleza U17
2.06

finishing

Fluminense U17+0.00on par
Fortaleza U17+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 55Under: 4555%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No: 52Yes: 4852%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fluminense U17 ↓

Fortaleza U17 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–14%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Fluminense U17 or draw
87%
Fluminense U17 or Fortaleza U17
81%
Draw or Fortaleza U17
33%

Winning margin

Fluminense U17 wins by 2+
43%
Fortaleza U17 wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Fluminense U17 1+ goals
88%
Fluminense U17 2+ goals
62%
Fluminense U17 3+ goals
35%
Fortaleza U17 1+ goals
55%
Fortaleza U17 2+ goals
19%
Fortaleza U17 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Fluminense U17 (draw refunded)
84%
Fortaleza U17 (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fluminense U17 at home — creates 2.14, concedes 0.76 · 21 matches

Fortaleza U17 away — creates 0.83, concedes 2.06 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fluminense U17 attack 2.14 + Fortaleza U17 defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 2.10

Fortaleza U17 attack 0.83 + Fluminense U17 defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Fluminense U17 scores more
67%
level
19%
Fortaleza U17 scores more
13%

Fluminense U17 at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Fluminense U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Fluminense U17 vs Fortaleza U17

Fluminense U17 beat Fortaleza U17 3-0 in Brasileiro U17 on June 10, 2026.