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Fluminense U17 vs Cuiaba U17 — Brasileiro U17 2026

Fluminense U17
Fluminense U17
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Cuiaba U17
Cuiaba U17
K. Samuel 18'
K. Mota 90+3'
D. Souza 63' (pen)
Unknown 25'
7/24/2024Brasileiro U17Brasileiro U17 · Group Stage - 4CT Vale Laranjeiras

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Fluminense U1772%
×Draw17%
Cuiaba U1710%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fluminense U17
2.27
Cuiaba U17
0.72

Fluminense U17 creates 215% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 15 away

creates per match

Fluminense U17
2.14
Cuiaba U17
0.67

allows per match

Fluminense U17
0.76
Cuiaba U17
2.40

finishing

Fluminense U17+0.00on par
Cuiaba U17+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 57Under: 4357%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No: 54Yes: 4654%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fluminense U17 ↓

Cuiaba U17 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Fluminense U17 or draw
90%
Fluminense U17 or Cuiaba U17
83%
Draw or Cuiaba U17
28%

Winning margin

Fluminense U17 wins by 2+
48%
Cuiaba U17 wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Fluminense U17 1+ goals
90%
Fluminense U17 2+ goals
66%
Fluminense U17 3+ goals
39%
Cuiaba U17 1+ goals
51%
Cuiaba U17 2+ goals
16%
Cuiaba U17 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Fluminense U17 (draw refunded)
87%
Cuiaba U17 (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fluminense U17 at home — creates 2.14, concedes 0.76 · 21 matches

Cuiaba U17 away — creates 0.67, concedes 2.40 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fluminense U17 attack 2.14 + Cuiaba U17 defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 2.27

Cuiaba U17 attack 0.67 + Fluminense U17 defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Fluminense U17 scores more
72%
level
17%
Cuiaba U17 scores more
10%

Fluminense U17 at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Fluminense U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'
K. Samuel
25'
63'
D. SouzaPenalty
90+3'
K. Mota

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Fluminense U17 vs Cuiaba U17

Cuiaba U17 beat Fluminense U17 3-1 in Brasileiro U17 on July 24, 2024.

Goals: K. Samuel (18'), ? (25'), D. Souza (63' pen), K. Mota (90+3').

The match was played at CT Vale Laranjeiras in Duque de Caxias, Rio de Janeiro.