Fluminense PI 1–1 Maranhão: Result & Stats

Fluminense PI

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Maranhão

Carlos Henrique 9'

Carlos 33'

6/28/2023

Serie D · 1st Phase - 10Arena do Guerreiro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Fluminense PI35%

×Draw29%

Maranhão36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fluminense PIExpected goals in this matchMaranhão

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

1.15

Fluminense PI

1.13

Maranhão

1.15

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 27 home / 33 away

1.19

creates per match

0.97

1.33

allows per match

1.06

creates per match

Fluminense PI

1.19

Maranhão

0.97

allows per match

Fluminense PI

1.33

Maranhão

1.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fluminense PI+0.00on par

Maranhão+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fluminense PI ↓

Maranhão →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Fluminense PI or draw

64%

Fluminense PI or Maranhão

71%

Draw or Maranhão

65%

Winning margin

Fluminense PI wins by 2+

14%

Maranhão wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Fluminense PI 1+ goals

68%

Fluminense PI 2+ goals

31%

Fluminense PI 3+ goals

11%

Maranhão 1+ goals

68%

Maranhão 2+ goals

32%

Maranhão 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Fluminense PI (draw refunded)

49%

Maranhão (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fluminense PI at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.33 · 27 matches

Maranhão away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.06 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fluminense PI attack 1.19 + Maranhão defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.13

Maranhão attack 0.97 + Fluminense PI defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Fluminense PI scores more

35%

level

29%

Maranhão scores more

36%

Maranhão at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Maranhão will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'

Carlos Henrique

33'

Carlos

40'

Gustavo Cutrim← Maicon

63'

Gustavo← Mateus Ramos

67'

Guilherme Capote← Ronald Camarão

67'

Marcos Alexandre← Carlos

72'

Geandro← Maurício

73'

Filipe Ramon← Jorge Rocha

83'

Talyson← Gabriel Vieira

Fluminense

Maranhão

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

Manager: Eduardo Ribeiro

63'▲Gustavo←▼Mateus Ramos

72'▲Geandro←▼Maurício

83'▲Talyson←▼Gabriel Vieira

Fluminense PI substitutes

GustavoGeandroTalysonResendeDurkheimFagnerJoséRenneWeverton

Manager: Zé Augusto

40'▲Gustavo Cutrim←▼Maicon

67'▲Guilherme Capote←▼Ronald Camarão

67'▲Marcos Alexandre←▼Carlos

73'▲Filipe Ramon←▼Jorge Rocha

Maranhão substitutes

CutrimCapoteAlexandreRamonGuilhermeDenilsonNathanRafaelRodrigo