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Fluminense PI vs Ferroviario — Serie D 2026

Fluminense PI
Fluminense PI
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Ferroviario
Ferroviario
Joao Vitor 21'
Luan 45'
4/4/2026Serie DSerie D · Round 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Fluminense PI36%
×Draw28%
Ferroviario36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fluminense PI
1.21
Ferroviario
1.20

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 27 home / 35 away

creates per match

Fluminense PI
1.19
Ferroviario
1.06

allows per match

Fluminense PI
1.33
Ferroviario
1.23

finishing

Fluminense PI+0.00on par
Ferroviario+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 57Over: 4357%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 51Yes: 4951%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fluminense PI ↓

Ferroviario →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Fluminense PI or draw
64%
Fluminense PI or Ferroviario
72%
Draw or Ferroviario
64%

Winning margin

Fluminense PI wins by 2+
16%
Ferroviario wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Fluminense PI 1+ goals
70%
Fluminense PI 2+ goals
34%
Fluminense PI 3+ goals
12%
Ferroviario 1+ goals
70%
Ferroviario 2+ goals
34%
Ferroviario 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Fluminense PI (draw refunded)
50%
Ferroviario (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fluminense PI at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.33 · 27 matches

Ferroviario away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.23 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fluminense PI attack 1.19 + Ferroviario defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.21

Ferroviario attack 1.06 + Fluminense PI defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Fluminense PI scores more
36%
level
28%
Ferroviario scores more
36%

Fluminense PI at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Fluminense PI will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

21'
Joao Vitor
45'
Luan

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D: Fluminense PI 1–1 Ferroviario

Fluminense PI and Ferroviario drew 1-1 in Serie D on April 4, 2026.

Goals: Joao Vitor (21'), Luan (45').