Fluminense PI 0–0 Cordino: Result & Stats | Serie D

Fluminense PI

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Cordino

5/28/2023

Serie D · 1st Phase - 4Arena do Guerreiro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Fluminense PI47%

×Draw26%

Cordino27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fluminense PIExpected goals in this matchCordino

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.03

Fluminense PI

1.46

Cordino

1.03

Fluminense PI creates 42% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 11 away

1.19

creates per match

0.73

1.33

allows per match

1.73

creates per match

Fluminense PI

1.19

Cordino

0.73

allows per match

Fluminense PI

1.33

Cordino

1.73

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fluminense PI+0.00on par

Cordino+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fluminense PI ↓

Cordino →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Fluminense PI or draw

73%

Fluminense PI or Cordino

74%

Draw or Cordino

53%

Winning margin

Fluminense PI wins by 2+

23%

Cordino wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Fluminense PI 1+ goals

77%

Fluminense PI 2+ goals

43%

Fluminense PI 3+ goals

18%

Cordino 1+ goals

64%

Cordino 2+ goals

28%

Cordino 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Fluminense PI (draw refunded)

64%

Cordino (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fluminense PI at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.33 · 27 matches

Cordino away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.73 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fluminense PI attack 1.19 + Cordino defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.46

Cordino attack 0.73 + Fluminense PI defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Fluminense PI scores more

47%

level

26%

Cordino scores more

27%

Fluminense PI at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Fluminense PI will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

58'

Esmael← Samuel Rato

73'

Carlos Henrique← Gean

73'

Durkheim← Tiaguinho

73'

Ribeiro← Gabriel Vieira

73'

Ullisses← Robson Pereira

73'

Victor Viana← Paulo Victor

77'

Biloca← Weverton

86'

Ruan← Debu

90+1'

Jonatan← André Radija

Fluminense

Cordino

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Eduardo Ribeiro

58'▲Esmael←▼Samuel Rato

73'▲Carlos Henrique←▼Gean

73'▲Durkheim←▼Tiaguinho

73'▲Ribeiro←▼Gabriel Vieira

77'▲Biloca←▼Weverton

Fluminense PI substitutes

EsmaelHenriqueDurkheimRibeiroBilocaResendeFagnerJoséMaurícioRenneGeandroNatanael

Manager: Marlon Cutrim

73'▲Ullisses←▼Robson Pereira

73'▲Victor Viana←▼Paulo Victor

86'▲Ruan←▼Debu

90+1'▲Jonatan←▼André Radija

Cordino substitutes

UllissesVianaRuanJonatanRiosCássioDuduEvertonVictorRivaldo