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Fluminense De Feira vs Teixeira de Freitas — Baiano - 2 2019

Fluminense De Feira
Fluminense De Feira
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Teixeira de Freitas
Teixeira de Freitas
5/31/2025Baiano - 2Baiano - 2 · Round 6Estádio Alberto Oliveira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Fluminense De Feira86%
×Draw12%
Teixeira de Freitas3%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fluminense De Feira
2.44
Teixeira de Freitas
0.25

Fluminense De Feira creates 876% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 8 away

creates per match

Fluminense De Feira
1.62
Teixeira de Freitas
0.00

allows per match

Fluminense De Feira
0.50
Teixeira de Freitas
3.25

finishing

Fluminense De Feira+0.00on par
Teixeira de Freitas+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

80%No
  • No80
  • Yes20

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fluminense De Feira ↓

Teixeira de Freitas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–12%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–14%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–020%
2–15%
2–21%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–017%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–010%
4–13%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (20%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Fluminense De Feira or draw
97%
Fluminense De Feira or Teixeira de Freitas
88%
Draw or Teixeira de Freitas
14%

Winning margin

Fluminense De Feira wins by 2+
63%
Teixeira de Freitas wins by 2+
0%

Team goals

Fluminense De Feira 1+ goals
91%
Fluminense De Feira 2+ goals
70%
Fluminense De Feira 3+ goals
43%
Teixeira de Freitas 1+ goals
22%
Teixeira de Freitas 2+ goals
3%
Teixeira de Freitas 3+ goals
0%

Draw no bet

Fluminense De Feira (draw refunded)
97%
Teixeira de Freitas (draw refunded)
3%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
16%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fluminense De Feira at home — creates 1.62, concedes 0.50 · 26 matches

Teixeira de Freitas away — creates 0.00, concedes 3.25 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fluminense De Feira attack 1.62 + Teixeira de Freitas defence 3.25 → ÷2 → 2.44

Teixeira de Freitas attack 0.00 + Fluminense De Feira defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 86%?"

Fluminense De Feira scores more
86%
level
12%
Teixeira de Freitas scores more
3%

Fluminense De Feira at 86% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 86% does not mean "Fluminense De Feira will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Fluminense De Feira vs Teixeira de Freitas

Fluminense De Feira beat Teixeira de Freitas 2-0 in Baiano - 2 on May 31, 2025.

The match was played at Estádio Alberto Oliveira in Feira de Santana, Bahia.