Fluminense De Feira 1–1 Juazeiro BA: Result & Stats

Fluminense De Feira

FT

1 – 1

Juazeiro BA

6/19/2022

Baiano - 2 · Round 7Estádio Alberto Oliveira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Fluminense De Feira53%

×Draw30%

Juazeiro BA17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fluminense De FeiraExpected goals in this matchJuazeiro BA

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.26

0.58

Fluminense De Feira

1.26

Juazeiro BA

0.58

Fluminense De Feira creates 117% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 9 away

1.62

creates per match

0.67

0.50

allows per match

0.89

creates per match

Fluminense De Feira

1.62

Juazeiro BA

0.67

allows per match

Fluminense De Feira

0.50

Juazeiro BA

0.89

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fluminense De Feira+0.00on par

Juazeiro BA+0.00on par

Total goals

Under72
Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No68
Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fluminense De Feira ↓

Juazeiro BA →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–016%

0–19%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–020%

1–112%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–17%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

84%16%1.5

55%45%2.5

28%72%3.5

11%89%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Fluminense De Feira or draw

83%

Fluminense De Feira or Juazeiro BA

70%

Draw or Juazeiro BA

47%

Winning margin

Fluminense De Feira wins by 2+

25%

Juazeiro BA wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Fluminense De Feira 1+ goals

72%

Fluminense De Feira 2+ goals

36%

Fluminense De Feira 3+ goals

13%

Juazeiro BA 1+ goals

44%

Juazeiro BA 2+ goals

12%

Juazeiro BA 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Fluminense De Feira (draw refunded)

76%

Juazeiro BA (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

20%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fluminense De Feira at home — creates 1.62, concedes 0.50 · 26 matches

Juazeiro BA away — creates 0.67, concedes 0.89 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fluminense De Feira attack 1.62 + Juazeiro BA defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.26

Juazeiro BA attack 0.67 + Fluminense De Feira defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Fluminense De Feira scores more

53%

level

30%

Juazeiro BA scores more

17%

Fluminense De Feira at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Fluminense De Feira will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff