Fluminense De Feira 1–0 Jacobinense: Result & Stats

Fluminense De Feira

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Jacobinense

6/13/2024

Baiano - 2 · Round 2Estádio Alberto Oliveira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Fluminense De Feira60%

×Draw24%

Jacobinense15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fluminense De FeiraExpected goals in this matchJacobinense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.66

0.70

Fluminense De Feira

1.66

Jacobinense

0.70

Fluminense De Feira creates 137% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 10 away

1.62

creates per match

0.90

0.50

allows per match

1.70

creates per match

Fluminense De Feira

1.62

Jacobinense

0.90

allows per match

Fluminense De Feira

0.50

Jacobinense

1.70

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fluminense De Feira+0.00on par

Jacobinense+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fluminense De Feira ↓

Jacobinense →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–17%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Fluminense De Feira or draw

85%

Fluminense De Feira or Jacobinense

76%

Draw or Jacobinense

40%

Winning margin

Fluminense De Feira wins by 2+

34%

Jacobinense wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Fluminense De Feira 1+ goals

81%

Fluminense De Feira 2+ goals

49%

Fluminense De Feira 3+ goals

23%

Jacobinense 1+ goals

50%

Jacobinense 2+ goals

16%

Jacobinense 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Fluminense De Feira (draw refunded)

80%

Jacobinense (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fluminense De Feira at home — creates 1.62, concedes 0.50 · 26 matches

Jacobinense away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.70 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fluminense De Feira attack 1.62 + Jacobinense defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.66

Jacobinense attack 0.90 + Fluminense De Feira defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Fluminense De Feira scores more

60%

level

24%

Jacobinense scores more

15%

Fluminense De Feira at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Fluminense De Feira will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff