Fluminense De Feira 1–1 ABPN Canaã: Result & Stats

Fluminense De Feira

FT

1 – 1

ABPN Canaã

7/10/2022

Baiano - 2 · Round 11Estádio Alberto Oliveira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Fluminense De Feira65%

×Draw23%

ABPN Canaã12%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fluminense De FeiraExpected goals in this matchABPN Canaã

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.72

0.57

Fluminense De Feira

1.72

ABPN Canaã

0.57

Fluminense De Feira creates 202% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 11 away

1.62

creates per match

0.64

0.50

allows per match

1.82

creates per match

Fluminense De Feira

1.62

ABPN Canaã

0.64

allows per match

Fluminense De Feira

0.50

ABPN Canaã

1.82

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fluminense De Feira+0.00on par

ABPN Canaã+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No64
Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fluminense De Feira ↓

ABPN Canaã →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–16%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–110%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–015%

2–19%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–15%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Fluminense De Feira or draw

88%

Fluminense De Feira or ABPN Canaã

77%

Draw or ABPN Canaã

35%

Winning margin

Fluminense De Feira wins by 2+

38%

ABPN Canaã wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Fluminense De Feira 1+ goals

82%

Fluminense De Feira 2+ goals

51%

Fluminense De Feira 3+ goals

25%

ABPN Canaã 1+ goals

43%

ABPN Canaã 2+ goals

11%

ABPN Canaã 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Fluminense De Feira (draw refunded)

85%

ABPN Canaã (draw refunded)

15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fluminense De Feira at home — creates 1.62, concedes 0.50 · 26 matches

ABPN Canaã away — creates 0.64, concedes 1.82 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fluminense De Feira attack 1.62 + ABPN Canaã defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.72

ABPN Canaã attack 0.64 + Fluminense De Feira defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Fluminense De Feira scores more

65%

level

23%

ABPN Canaã scores more

12%

Fluminense De Feira at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Fluminense De Feira will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff