Fluminense de Feira U20 5–1 Ypiranga BA U20

Fluminense de Feira U20

FT

5 – 1

Ypiranga BA U20

5/17/2025

Baiano U20 · 1st Phase - 8Estádio Alberto Oliveira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Fluminense de Feira U2062%

×Draw21%

Ypiranga BA U2017%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fluminense de Feira U20Expected goals in this matchYpiranga BA U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.98

0.93

Fluminense de Feira U20

1.98

Ypiranga BA U20

0.93

Fluminense de Feira U20 creates 113% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 14 away

2.24

creates per match

0.86

1.00

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Fluminense de Feira U20

2.24

Ypiranga BA U20

0.86

allows per match

Fluminense de Feira U20

1.00

Ypiranga BA U20

1.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fluminense de Feira U20+0.00on par

Ypiranga BA U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fluminense de Feira U20 ↓

Ypiranga BA U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–110%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Fluminense de Feira U20 or draw

83%

Fluminense de Feira U20 or Ypiranga BA U20

79%

Draw or Ypiranga BA U20

38%

Winning margin

Fluminense de Feira U20 wins by 2+

37%

Ypiranga BA U20 wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Fluminense de Feira U20 1+ goals

86%

Fluminense de Feira U20 2+ goals

59%

Fluminense de Feira U20 3+ goals

31%

Ypiranga BA U20 1+ goals

61%

Ypiranga BA U20 2+ goals

24%

Ypiranga BA U20 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Fluminense de Feira U20 (draw refunded)

78%

Ypiranga BA U20 (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fluminense de Feira U20 at home — creates 2.24, concedes 1.00 · 17 matches

Ypiranga BA U20 away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.71 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fluminense de Feira U20 attack 2.24 + Ypiranga BA U20 defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.98

Ypiranga BA U20 attack 0.86 + Fluminense de Feira U20 defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Fluminense de Feira U20 scores more

62%

level

21%

Ypiranga BA U20 scores more

17%

Fluminense de Feira U20 at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Fluminense de Feira U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff