Flota Świnoujście 1–2 Pogoń Szczecin II

Flota Świnoujście

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Pogoń Szczecin II

H. Turski 86' (pen)

K. Smolinski 49' (pen)

J. Czaplinski 35'

5/17/2026

III Liga - Group 2 · Group II - 32Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Flota Świnoujście35%

×Draw24%

Pogoń Szczecin II41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Flota ŚwinoujścieExpected goals in this matchPogoń Szczecin II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.65

Flota Świnoujście

1.50

Pogoń Szczecin II

1.65

Pogoń Szczecin II creates 10% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 104 away

1.40

creates per match

1.58

1.72

allows per match

1.61

creates per match

Flota Świnoujście

1.40

Pogoń Szczecin II

1.58

allows per match

Flota Świnoujście

1.72

Pogoń Szczecin II

1.61

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Flota Świnoujście+0.00on par

Pogoń Szczecin II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Flota Świnoujście ↓

Pogoń Szczecin II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Flota Świnoujście or draw

59%

Flota Świnoujście or Pogoń Szczecin II

76%

Draw or Pogoń Szczecin II

65%

Winning margin

Flota Świnoujście wins by 2+

17%

Pogoń Szczecin II wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Flota Świnoujście 1+ goals

78%

Flota Świnoujście 2+ goals

44%

Flota Świnoujście 3+ goals

19%

Pogoń Szczecin II 1+ goals

81%

Pogoń Szczecin II 2+ goals

49%

Pogoń Szczecin II 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Flota Świnoujście (draw refunded)

46%

Pogoń Szczecin II (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Flota Świnoujście at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.72 · 68 matches

Pogoń Szczecin II away — creates 1.58, concedes 1.61 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Flota Świnoujście attack 1.40 + Pogoń Szczecin II defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.50

Pogoń Szczecin II attack 1.58 + Flota Świnoujście defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Flota Świnoujście scores more

35%

level

24%

Pogoń Szczecin II scores more

41%

Pogoń Szczecin II at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Pogoń Szczecin II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

35'

J. Czaplinski

49'

K. SmolinskiPenalty

86'

H. TurskiPenalty

Flota

Pogoń

Manager: Karol Szweda

Manager: P. Cretti