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Flota Świnoujście vs Zawisza Bydgoszcz — III Liga - Group 2 2020

Flota Świnoujście
Flota Świnoujście
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Zawisza Bydgoszcz
Zawisza Bydgoszcz
10/11/2025III Liga - Group 2III Liga - Group 2 · Group II - 12Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Flota Świnoujście29%
×Draw23%
Zawisza Bydgoszcz48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Flota Świnoujście
1.39
Zawisza Bydgoszcz
1.83

Zawisza Bydgoszcz creates 32% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 84 away

creates per match

Flota Świnoujście
1.40
Zawisza Bydgoszcz
1.95

allows per match

Flota Świnoujście
1.72
Zawisza Bydgoszcz
1.37

finishing

Flota Świnoujście+0.00on par
Zawisza Bydgoszcz+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Flota Świnoujście ↓

Zawisza Bydgoszcz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Flota Świnoujście or draw
52%
Flota Świnoujście or Zawisza Bydgoszcz
77%
Draw or Zawisza Bydgoszcz
71%

Winning margin

Flota Świnoujście wins by 2+
13%
Zawisza Bydgoszcz wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Flota Świnoujście 1+ goals
75%
Flota Świnoujście 2+ goals
40%
Flota Świnoujście 3+ goals
16%
Zawisza Bydgoszcz 1+ goals
84%
Zawisza Bydgoszcz 2+ goals
54%
Zawisza Bydgoszcz 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Flota Świnoujście (draw refunded)
38%
Zawisza Bydgoszcz (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Flota Świnoujście at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.72 · 68 matches

Zawisza Bydgoszcz away — creates 1.95, concedes 1.37 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Flota Świnoujście attack 1.40 + Zawisza Bydgoszcz defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.39

Zawisza Bydgoszcz attack 1.95 + Flota Świnoujście defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Flota Świnoujście scores more
29%
level
23%
Zawisza Bydgoszcz scores more
48%

Zawisza Bydgoszcz at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Zawisza Bydgoszcz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Flota Świnoujście vs Zawisza Bydgoszcz

Flota Świnoujście beat Zawisza Bydgoszcz 1-0 in III Liga - Group 2 on October 11, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski in Świnoujście.