Flota Świnoujście 2–0 Vineta Wolin: Result & Stats

Flota Świnoujście

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Vineta Wolin

8/27/2023

III Liga - Group 2 · Group 2 - 5Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Flota Świnoujście50%

×Draw22%

Vineta Wolin28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Flota ŚwinoujścieExpected goals in this matchVineta Wolin

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.04

1.50

Flota Świnoujście

2.04

Vineta Wolin

1.50

Flota Świnoujście creates 36% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 51 away

1.40

creates per match

1.27

1.72

allows per match

2.69

creates per match

Flota Świnoujście

1.40

Vineta Wolin

1.27

allows per match

Flota Świnoujście

1.72

Vineta Wolin

2.69

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Flota Świnoujście+0.00on par

Vineta Wolin+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Flota Świnoujście ↓

Vineta Wolin →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

68%32%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Flota Świnoujście or draw

72%

Flota Świnoujście or Vineta Wolin

78%

Draw or Vineta Wolin

50%

Winning margin

Flota Świnoujście wins by 2+

29%

Vineta Wolin wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Flota Świnoujście 1+ goals

87%

Flota Świnoujście 2+ goals

60%

Flota Świnoujście 3+ goals

33%

Vineta Wolin 1+ goals

78%

Vineta Wolin 2+ goals

44%

Vineta Wolin 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Flota Świnoujście (draw refunded)

64%

Vineta Wolin (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Flota Świnoujście at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.72 · 68 matches

Vineta Wolin away — creates 1.27, concedes 2.69 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Flota Świnoujście attack 1.40 + Vineta Wolin defence 2.69 → ÷2 → 2.04

Vineta Wolin attack 1.27 + Flota Świnoujście defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Flota Świnoujście scores more

50%

level

22%

Vineta Wolin scores more

28%

Flota Świnoujście at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Flota Świnoujście will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff