Flota Świnoujście 1–0 Pomorzanin Toruń

Flota Świnoujście

FT

1 – 0

Pomorzanin Toruń

4/17/2021

III Liga - Group 2 · Group 2 - 24Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Flota Świnoujście37%

×Draw25%

Pomorzanin Toruń38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Flota ŚwinoujścieExpected goals in this matchPomorzanin Toruń

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.45

Flota Świnoujście

1.44

Pomorzanin Toruń

1.45

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 68 home / 17 away

1.40

creates per match

1.18

1.72

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

Flota Świnoujście

1.40

Pomorzanin Toruń

1.18

allows per match

Flota Świnoujście

1.72

Pomorzanin Toruń

1.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Flota Świnoujście+0.00on par

Pomorzanin Toruń+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Flota Świnoujście ↓

Pomorzanin Toruń →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Flota Świnoujście or draw

62%

Flota Świnoujście or Pomorzanin Toruń

75%

Draw or Pomorzanin Toruń

63%

Winning margin

Flota Świnoujście wins by 2+

17%

Pomorzanin Toruń wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Flota Świnoujście 1+ goals

76%

Flota Świnoujście 2+ goals

42%

Flota Świnoujście 3+ goals

18%

Pomorzanin Toruń 1+ goals

77%

Pomorzanin Toruń 2+ goals

42%

Pomorzanin Toruń 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Flota Świnoujście (draw refunded)

50%

Pomorzanin Toruń (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Flota Świnoujście at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.72 · 68 matches

Pomorzanin Toruń away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.47 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Flota Świnoujście attack 1.40 + Pomorzanin Toruń defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.44

Pomorzanin Toruń attack 1.18 + Flota Świnoujście defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Flota Świnoujście scores more

37%

level

25%

Pomorzanin Toruń scores more

38%

Pomorzanin Toruń at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Pomorzanin Toruń will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff