Floro 2–4 Sogndal II: Result & Stats

Floro

FT

2 – 4

HT: 0 – 1

Sogndal II

9/18/2023

3. Division - Girone 2 · Group 2 - 20Florø stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Floro64%

×Draw17%

Sogndal II18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FloroExpected goals in this matchSogndal II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.71

1.41

Floro

2.71

Sogndal II

1.41

Floro creates 92% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 13 away

2.12

creates per match

1.46

1.35

allows per match

3.31

creates per match

Floro

2.12

Sogndal II

1.46

allows per match

Floro

1.35

Sogndal II

3.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Floro+0.00on par

Sogndal II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over77
Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Floro ↓

Sogndal II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–04%

1–16%

1–24%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–18%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

77%23%3.5

58%42%4.5

38%62%

Double chance

Floro or draw

82%

Floro or Sogndal II

83%

Draw or Sogndal II

36%

Winning margin

Floro wins by 2+

44%

Sogndal II wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Floro 1+ goals

93%

Floro 2+ goals

75%

Floro 3+ goals

50%

Sogndal II 1+ goals

76%

Sogndal II 2+ goals

41%

Sogndal II 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Floro (draw refunded)

78%

Sogndal II (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

64%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Floro at home — creates 2.12, concedes 1.35 · 26 matches

Sogndal II away — creates 1.46, concedes 3.31 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Floro attack 2.12 + Sogndal II defence 3.31 → ÷2 → 2.71

Sogndal II attack 1.46 + Floro defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Floro scores more

64%

level

17%

Sogndal II scores more

18%

Floro at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Floro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff