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Floro vs Nest-Sotra — 1. Division 2018

Floro
Floro
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Nest-Sotra
Nest-Sotra
5/16/20181. Division1. Division · Round 8Florø stadion (Florø)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Floro31%
×Draw25%
Nest-Sotra44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Floro
1.26
Nest-Sotra
1.55

Nest-Sotra creates 23% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 31 away

creates per match

Floro
1.07
Nest-Sotra
1.23

allows per match

Floro
1.87
Nest-Sotra
1.45

finishing

Floro+0.00on par
Nest-Sotra+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Floro ↓

Nest-Sotra →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Floro or draw
56%
Floro or Nest-Sotra
75%
Draw or Nest-Sotra
69%

Winning margin

Floro wins by 2+
13%
Nest-Sotra wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Floro 1+ goals
72%
Floro 2+ goals
36%
Floro 3+ goals
13%
Nest-Sotra 1+ goals
79%
Nest-Sotra 2+ goals
46%
Nest-Sotra 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Floro (draw refunded)
41%
Nest-Sotra (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Floro at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.87 · 15 matches

Nest-Sotra away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.45 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Floro attack 1.07 + Nest-Sotra defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.26

Nest-Sotra attack 1.23 + Floro defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Floro scores more
31%
level
25%
Nest-Sotra scores more
44%

Nest-Sotra at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Nest-Sotra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Floro vs Nest-Sotra

Nest-Sotra beat Floro 2-0 in 1. Division on May 16, 2018.

The match was played at Florø stadion (Florø).