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Floro vs Bjarg — 3. Division - Girone 1 2020

Floro
Floro
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Bjarg
Bjarg
4/13/20243. Division - Girone 13. Division - Girone 1 · Group 1 - 2Florø kunstgras

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Floro6%
×Draw11%
Bjarg83%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Floro
0.85
Bjarg
3.30

Bjarg creates 288% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

creates per match

Floro
0.85
Bjarg
2.92

allows per match

Floro
3.69
Bjarg
0.85

finishing

Floro+0.00on par
Bjarg+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Floro ↓

Bjarg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–29%
0–310%
0–48%
1
1–01%
1–15%
1–28%
1–38%
1–47%
2
2–01%
2–12%
2–23%
2–34%
2–43%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–3 (10%) · grid covers 80% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
57%43%4.5
37%63%

Double chance

Floro or draw
17%
Floro or Bjarg
89%
Draw or Bjarg
94%

Winning margin

Floro wins by 2+
2%
Bjarg wins by 2+
65%

Team goals

Floro 1+ goals
57%
Floro 2+ goals
21%
Floro 3+ goals
5%
Bjarg 1+ goals
96%
Bjarg 2+ goals
83%
Bjarg 3+ goals
62%

Draw no bet

Floro (draw refunded)
7%
Bjarg (draw refunded)
93%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Floro at home — creates 0.85, concedes 3.69 · 13 matches

Bjarg away — creates 2.92, concedes 0.85 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Floro attack 0.85 + Bjarg defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.85

Bjarg attack 2.92 + Floro defence 3.69 → ÷2 → 3.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 83%?"

Floro scores more
6%
level
11%
Bjarg scores more
83%

Bjarg at 83% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 83% does not mean "Bjarg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Floro vs Bjarg

Bjarg beat Floro 1-0 in 3. Division - Girone 1 on April 13, 2024.

The match was played at Florø kunstgras in Florø.