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Floro vs Asane — 1. Division 2018

Floro
Floro
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Asane
Asane
10/28/20181. Division1. Division · Round 28Florø stadion (Florø)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Floro36%
×Draw24%
Asane40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Floro
1.48
Asane
1.58

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 113 away

creates per match

Floro
1.07
Asane
1.28

allows per match

Floro
1.87
Asane
1.89

finishing

Floro+0.00on par
Asane+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Floro ↓

Asane →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Floro or draw
60%
Floro or Asane
76%
Draw or Asane
64%

Winning margin

Floro wins by 2+
17%
Asane wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Floro 1+ goals
77%
Floro 2+ goals
43%
Floro 3+ goals
19%
Asane 1+ goals
79%
Asane 2+ goals
47%
Asane 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Floro (draw refunded)
47%
Asane (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Floro at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.87 · 15 matches

Asane away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.89 · 113 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Floro attack 1.07 + Asane defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.48

Asane attack 1.28 + Floro defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Floro scores more
36%
level
24%
Asane scores more
40%

Asane at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Asane will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Division: Floro 1–2 Asane

Asane beat Floro 2-1 in 1. Division on October 28, 2018.

The match was played at Florø stadion (Florø).