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Florida Elite vs The Villages — USL League Two 2018

Florida Elite
Florida Elite
FT
0 – 1
The Villages
The Villages
6/12/2021USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 24Mandarin High School

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Florida Elite43%
×Draw26%
The Villages31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Florida Elite
1.45
The Villages
1.17

Florida Elite creates 24% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 42 away

creates per match

Florida Elite
2.11
The Villages
1.52

allows per match

Florida Elite
0.81
The Villages
0.79

finishing

Florida Elite+0.00on par
The Villages+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Florida Elite ↓

The Villages →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Florida Elite or draw
69%
Florida Elite or The Villages
74%
Draw or The Villages
57%

Winning margin

Florida Elite wins by 2+
21%
The Villages wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Florida Elite 1+ goals
77%
Florida Elite 2+ goals
42%
Florida Elite 3+ goals
18%
The Villages 1+ goals
69%
The Villages 2+ goals
33%
The Villages 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Florida Elite (draw refunded)
59%
The Villages (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Florida Elite at home — creates 2.11, concedes 0.81 · 27 matches

The Villages away — creates 1.52, concedes 0.79 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Florida Elite attack 2.11 + The Villages defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 1.45

The Villages attack 1.52 + Florida Elite defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Florida Elite scores more
43%
level
26%
The Villages scores more
31%

Florida Elite at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Florida Elite will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Florida Elite vs The Villages

The Villages beat Florida Elite 1-0 in USL League Two on June 12, 2021.

The match was played at Mandarin High School in Jacksonville, Florida.