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Florida Elite vs FC Miami City — USL League Two 2018

Florida Elite
Florida Elite
FT
3 – 0
FC Miami City
FC Miami City
6/29/2019USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 5Bartram Trail High School

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Florida Elite58%
×Draw21%
FC Miami City20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Florida Elite
2.05
FC Miami City
1.13

Florida Elite creates 81% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 31 away

creates per match

Florida Elite
2.11
FC Miami City
1.45

allows per match

Florida Elite
0.81
FC Miami City
2.00

finishing

Florida Elite+0.00on par
FC Miami City+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Florida Elite ↓

FC Miami City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Florida Elite or draw
80%
Florida Elite or FC Miami City
79%
Draw or FC Miami City
42%

Winning margin

Florida Elite wins by 2+
35%
FC Miami City wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Florida Elite 1+ goals
87%
Florida Elite 2+ goals
61%
Florida Elite 3+ goals
33%
FC Miami City 1+ goals
68%
FC Miami City 2+ goals
31%
FC Miami City 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Florida Elite (draw refunded)
74%
FC Miami City (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Florida Elite at home — creates 2.11, concedes 0.81 · 27 matches

FC Miami City away — creates 1.45, concedes 2.00 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Florida Elite attack 2.11 + FC Miami City defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.05

FC Miami City attack 1.45 + Florida Elite defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Florida Elite scores more
58%
level
21%
FC Miami City scores more
20%

Florida Elite at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Florida Elite will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Florida Elite vs FC Miami City

Florida Elite beat FC Miami City 3-0 in USL League Two on June 29, 2019.

The match was played at Bartram Trail High School.