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Florida Elite vs FC Florida II — USL League Two 2018

Florida Elite
Florida Elite
FT
0 – 0
FC Florida II
FC Florida II
6/23/2021USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 34Mandarin High School

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Florida Elite66%
×Draw21%
FC Florida II13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Florida Elite
1.97
FC Florida II
0.74

Florida Elite creates 166% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 12 away

creates per match

Florida Elite
2.11
FC Florida II
0.67

allows per match

Florida Elite
0.81
FC Florida II
1.83

finishing

Florida Elite+0.00on par
FC Florida II+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Florida Elite ↓

FC Florida II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Florida Elite or draw
87%
Florida Elite or FC Florida II
79%
Draw or FC Florida II
34%

Winning margin

Florida Elite wins by 2+
41%
FC Florida II wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Florida Elite 1+ goals
86%
Florida Elite 2+ goals
58%
Florida Elite 3+ goals
31%
FC Florida II 1+ goals
52%
FC Florida II 2+ goals
17%
FC Florida II 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Florida Elite (draw refunded)
83%
FC Florida II (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Florida Elite at home — creates 2.11, concedes 0.81 · 27 matches

FC Florida II away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.83 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Florida Elite attack 2.11 + FC Florida II defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.97

FC Florida II attack 0.67 + Florida Elite defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Florida Elite scores more
66%
level
21%
FC Florida II scores more
13%

Florida Elite at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Florida Elite will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Florida Elite vs FC Florida II

Florida Elite and FC Florida II drew 0-0 in USL League Two on June 23, 2021.

The match was played at Mandarin High School in Jacksonville, Florida.