Florida Elite 2–0 Brooke House: Result & Stats

Florida Elite

FT

2 – 0

Brooke House

6/12/2024

USL League Two · Southern Conference - 9Mandarin High School

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Florida Elite70%

×Draw18%

Brooke House12%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Florida EliteExpected goals in this matchBrooke House

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.21

0.78

Florida Elite

2.21

Brooke House

0.78

Florida Elite creates 183% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 19 away

2.11

creates per match

0.74

0.81

allows per match

2.32

creates per match

Florida Elite

2.11

Brooke House

0.74

allows per match

Florida Elite

0.81

Brooke House

2.32

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Florida Elite+0.00on par

Brooke House+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Florida Elite ↓

Brooke House →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–14%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–19%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–14%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Florida Elite or draw

88%

Florida Elite or Brooke House

82%

Draw or Brooke House

30%

Winning margin

Florida Elite wins by 2+

46%

Brooke House wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Florida Elite 1+ goals

89%

Florida Elite 2+ goals

65%

Florida Elite 3+ goals

38%

Brooke House 1+ goals

54%

Brooke House 2+ goals

18%

Brooke House 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Florida Elite (draw refunded)

85%

Brooke House (draw refunded)

15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Florida Elite at home — creates 2.11, concedes 0.81 · 27 matches

Brooke House away — creates 0.74, concedes 2.32 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Florida Elite attack 2.11 + Brooke House defence 2.32 → ÷2 → 2.21

Brooke House attack 0.74 + Florida Elite defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Florida Elite scores more

70%

level

18%

Brooke House scores more

12%

Florida Elite at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Florida Elite will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff