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Floriana vs Naxxar Lions — FA Trophy 2020

Floriana
Floriana
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Naxxar Lions
Naxxar Lions
1/13/2024FA TrophyFA Trophy · 1st RoundTony Bezzina Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Floriana49%
×Draw24%
Naxxar Lions27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Floriana
1.69
Naxxar Lions
1.18

Floriana creates 43% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 7 away

creates per match

Floriana
2.09
Naxxar Lions
1.71

allows per match

Floriana
0.64
Naxxar Lions
1.29

finishing

Floriana+0.00on par
Naxxar Lions+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Floriana ↓

Naxxar Lions →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Floriana or draw
73%
Floriana or Naxxar Lions
76%
Draw or Naxxar Lions
51%

Winning margin

Floriana wins by 2+
26%
Naxxar Lions wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Floriana 1+ goals
82%
Floriana 2+ goals
50%
Floriana 3+ goals
24%
Naxxar Lions 1+ goals
69%
Naxxar Lions 2+ goals
33%
Naxxar Lions 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Floriana (draw refunded)
65%
Naxxar Lions (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Floriana at home — creates 2.09, concedes 0.64 · 11 matches

Naxxar Lions away — creates 1.71, concedes 1.29 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Floriana attack 2.09 + Naxxar Lions defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.69

Naxxar Lions attack 1.71 + Floriana defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Floriana scores more
49%
level
24%
Naxxar Lions scores more
27%

Floriana at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Floriana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FA Trophy: Floriana 2–0 Naxxar Lions

Floriana beat Naxxar Lions 2-0 in FA Trophy on January 13, 2024.

The match was played at Tony Bezzina Stadium in Paola.