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Floreşti vs Sheriff Tiraspol — Super Liga 2026

Floreşti
Floreşti
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 3
Sheriff Tiraspol
Sheriff Tiraspol
9/15/2024Super LigaSuper Liga · Round 6Stadion Dinamo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Floreşti14%
×Draw19%
Sheriff Tiraspol67%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Floreşti
0.91
Sheriff Tiraspol
2.21

Sheriff Tiraspol creates 143% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 92 away

creates per match

Floreşti
1.31
Sheriff Tiraspol
2.10

allows per match

Floreşti
2.31
Sheriff Tiraspol
0.50

finishing

Floreşti+0.00on par
Sheriff Tiraspol+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Floreşti ↓

Sheriff Tiraspol →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–110%
0–211%
0–38%
0–44%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–24%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (11%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Floreşti or draw
33%
Floreşti or Sheriff Tiraspol
81%
Draw or Sheriff Tiraspol
86%

Winning margin

Floreşti wins by 2+
5%
Sheriff Tiraspol wins by 2+
43%

Team goals

Floreşti 1+ goals
60%
Floreşti 2+ goals
23%
Floreşti 3+ goals
6%
Sheriff Tiraspol 1+ goals
89%
Sheriff Tiraspol 2+ goals
65%
Sheriff Tiraspol 3+ goals
38%

Draw no bet

Floreşti (draw refunded)
18%
Sheriff Tiraspol (draw refunded)
82%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Floreşti at home — creates 1.31, concedes 2.31 · 64 matches

Sheriff Tiraspol away — creates 2.10, concedes 0.50 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Floreşti attack 1.31 + Sheriff Tiraspol defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.91

Sheriff Tiraspol attack 2.10 + Floreşti defence 2.31 → ÷2 → 2.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Floreşti scores more
14%
level
19%
Sheriff Tiraspol scores more
67%

Sheriff Tiraspol at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Sheriff Tiraspol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Floreşti vs Sheriff Tiraspol

Sheriff Tiraspol beat Floreşti 4-0 in Super Liga on September 15, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Dinamo in Tighina.