Floreşti 1–4 Sfîntul Gheorghe: Result & Stats

Floreşti

FT

1 – 4

HT: 0 – 2

Sfîntul Gheorghe

A. Cheptine 63'

V. Stînă 88'

E. Slivca 78' (pen)

D. Mandricenco 44', 29'

10/20/2020

Super Liga · Round 15Stadion Dinamo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Floreşti28%

×Draw22%

Sfîntul Gheorghe50%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FloreştiExpected goals in this matchSfîntul Gheorghe

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

1.89

Floreşti

1.36

Sfîntul Gheorghe

1.89

Sfîntul Gheorghe creates 39% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 56 away

1.31

creates per match

1.46

2.31

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

Floreşti

1.31

Sfîntul Gheorghe

1.46

allows per match

Floreşti

2.31

Sfîntul Gheorghe

1.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Floreşti+0.00on par

Sfîntul Gheorghe+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Floreşti ↓

Sfîntul Gheorghe →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Floreşti or draw

50%

Floreşti or Sfîntul Gheorghe

78%

Draw or Sfîntul Gheorghe

72%

Winning margin

Floreşti wins by 2+

12%

Sfîntul Gheorghe wins by 2+

28%

Team goals

Floreşti 1+ goals

74%

Floreşti 2+ goals

39%

Floreşti 3+ goals

16%

Sfîntul Gheorghe 1+ goals

85%

Sfîntul Gheorghe 2+ goals

56%

Sfîntul Gheorghe 3+ goals

29%

Draw no bet

Floreşti (draw refunded)

36%

Sfîntul Gheorghe (draw refunded)

64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Floreşti at home — creates 1.31, concedes 2.31 · 64 matches

Sfîntul Gheorghe away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.41 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Floreşti attack 1.31 + Sfîntul Gheorghe defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.36

Sfîntul Gheorghe attack 1.46 + Floreşti defence 2.31 → ÷2 → 1.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Floreşti scores more

28%

level

22%

Sfîntul Gheorghe scores more

50%

Sfîntul Gheorghe at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Sfîntul Gheorghe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

29'

43'

44'

63'

69'

69'

70'

V. Covcenco← A. Cheptine

77'

I. Bondarenco

78'

E. SlivcaPenalty

81'

V. Gulvas← A. Cobeţ

83'

V. Stina

88'

V. Stînă

Floreşti

Sfîntul

33

Calancea

4

Novicov

3

Focşa

7

▼

Suvorov

21

⚽

Slivca

17

Ojog

24

Sagna

22

⚽2

Mandricen

15

⚽

11

10

13

15

18

14

25

10

⚽

▼

Cheptine

27

Semirov

4

▼

Cobeţ

7

Osipov

17

▼

Bobrov

5

Calac

Manager: I. Groşev

69'▲V. Stefu←▼S. Bobrov

70'▲V. Covcenco←▼A. Cheptine

81'▲V. Gulvas←▼A. Cobeţ

Floreşti substitutes

77Stefu55Covcenco91Gulvas12Ivanov28Scripcenco

Manager: S. Cebotari

69'▲A. Adam←▼A. Suvorov

Sfîntul Gheorghe substitutes

14Adam1Railean5Plămădeală8Mochulyak9Volkov88Vremea