Floreşti 0–3 Saxan: Result & Stats | Super Liga

Floreşti

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Saxan

A. Mardari 81'

C. Gonta 76'

B. Musteata 44'

4/18/2025

Super Liga · Promotion Group - 6Stadion Dinamo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Floreşti23%

×Draw22%

Saxan56%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FloreştiExpected goals in this matchSaxan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

1.98

Floreşti

1.19

Saxan

1.98

Saxan creates 66% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 14 away

1.31

creates per match

1.64

2.31

allows per match

1.07

creates per match

Floreşti

1.31

Saxan

1.64

allows per match

Floreşti

2.31

Saxan

1.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Floreşti+0.00on par

Saxan+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Floreşti ↓

Saxan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–18%

0–28%

0–35%

0–43%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Floreşti or draw

44%

Floreşti or Saxan

78%

Draw or Saxan

77%

Winning margin

Floreşti wins by 2+

9%

Saxan wins by 2+

33%

Team goals

Floreşti 1+ goals

70%

Floreşti 2+ goals

33%

Floreşti 3+ goals

12%

Saxan 1+ goals

86%

Saxan 2+ goals

59%

Saxan 3+ goals

31%

Draw no bet

Floreşti (draw refunded)

29%

Saxan (draw refunded)

71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Floreşti at home — creates 1.31, concedes 2.31 · 64 matches

Saxan away — creates 1.64, concedes 1.07 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Floreşti attack 1.31 + Saxan defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.19

Saxan attack 1.64 + Floreşti defence 2.31 → ÷2 → 1.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Floreşti scores more

23%

level

22%

Saxan scores more

56%

Saxan at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Saxan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

44'

B. Musteata

76'

C. Gonta

81'

A. Mardari

Floreşti

Saxan

Manager: I. Ursachi

Manager: E. Molovata