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Floreşti vs EFA Visoca — Cupa 2020

Floreşti
Floreştiadvanced
FT
6 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
EFA Visoca
EFA Visoca
9/30/2025CupaCupa · Round of 32Stadionul Dinamo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Floreşti55%
×Draw17%
EFA Visoca27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Floreşti
3.17
EFA Visoca
2.25

Floreşti creates 41% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

creates per match

Floreşti
3.33
EFA Visoca
2.50

allows per match

Floreşti
2.00
EFA Visoca
3.00

finishing

Floreşti+0.00on par
EFA Visoca+0.00on par

Total goals

90%Over
  • Over90
  • Under10

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

85%Yes
  • Yes85
  • No15

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Floreşti ↓

EFA Visoca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–11%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–01%
1–13%
1–24%
1–33%
1–42%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–34%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–16%
3–26%
3–35%
3–43%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–25%
4–34%
4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (6%) · grid covers 76% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
97%3%2.5
90%10%3.5
78%22%4.5
61%39%

Double chance

Floreşti or draw
73%
Floreşti or EFA Visoca
83%
Draw or EFA Visoca
45%

Winning margin

Floreşti wins by 2+
37%
EFA Visoca wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Floreşti 1+ goals
96%
Floreşti 2+ goals
82%
Floreşti 3+ goals
60%
EFA Visoca 1+ goals
89%
EFA Visoca 2+ goals
65%
EFA Visoca 3+ goals
39%

Draw no bet

Floreşti (draw refunded)
67%
EFA Visoca (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
82%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Floreşti at home — creates 3.33, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

EFA Visoca away — creates 2.50, concedes 3.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Floreşti attack 3.33 + EFA Visoca defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 3.17

EFA Visoca attack 2.50 + Floreşti defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Floreşti scores more
55%
level
17%
EFA Visoca scores more
27%

Floreşti at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Floreşti will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cupa: Floreşti 6–0 EFA Visoca

Floreşti beat EFA Visoca 6-0 in Cupa on September 30, 2025.

The match was played at Stadionul Dinamo in Tighina.