Floresta 1–2 Maranhão: Result & Stats | Serie C

Floresta

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Maranhão

Jeam 69'

Felipe Cruz 24'

Vagalume 9' (pen)

5/4/2026

Serie C · Round 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Floresta43%

×Draw32%

Maranhão25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FlorestaExpected goals in this matchMaranhão

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.07

0.73

Floresta

1.07

Maranhão

0.73

Floresta creates 47% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 7 away

1.00

creates per match

0.43

1.04

allows per match

1.14

creates per match

Floresta

1.00

Maranhão

0.43

allows per match

Floresta

1.04

Maranhão

1.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Floresta+0.00on par

Maranhão+0.00on par

Total goals

Under73
Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No66
Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Floresta ↓

Maranhão →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–017%

0–112%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

83%17%1.5

54%46%2.5

27%73%3.5

11%89%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Floresta or draw

75%

Floresta or Maranhão

68%

Draw or Maranhão

57%

Winning margin

Floresta wins by 2+

18%

Maranhão wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Floresta 1+ goals

66%

Floresta 2+ goals

29%

Floresta 3+ goals

9%

Maranhão 1+ goals

52%

Maranhão 2+ goals

17%

Maranhão 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Floresta (draw refunded)

64%

Maranhão (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

21%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Floresta at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.04 · 55 matches

Maranhão away — creates 0.43, concedes 1.14 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Floresta attack 1.00 + Maranhão defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.07

Maranhão attack 0.43 + Floresta defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Floresta scores more

43%

level

32%

Maranhão scores more

25%

Floresta at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Floresta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'

VagalumePenalty

24'

26'

32'

36'

44'

46'

Matheus Martins← Daniel

46'

Guilherme Borges← Danrley

57'

59'

59'

69'

71'

Lucas Santos← Andre Radija

71'

Jorge Rocha← Vagalume

75'

Tiburcio← Keven

75'

Rafael Teixeira← Will

83'

Joao Celeri← Jhony Douglas

85'

90'

90+2'

90+3'

90+5'

Floresta

Maranhão

1

Jean

25

Mauricio

4

Lucao

18

▼

Keven

16

▼

Radija

8

Vander

15

Rosivan

20

⚽

▼

Vagalume

17

▼

Will

29

⚽

▼

26

12

15

30

4

23

29

▼

Caique

5

▼

Douglas

8

▼

Danrley

19

▼

Daniel

13

▼

Garraty

9

⚽

Jeam

Manager: Junior Leston

46'▲Matheus Martins←▼Daniel

46'▲Guilherme Borges←▼Danrley

59'▲Diego Matos←▼Caique

59'▲Matheusinho←▼Garraty

83'▲Joao Celeri←▼Jhony Douglas

Floresta substitutes

1Souza22Tiepo3Afonso6Matos10Matheusinho11Rafinha14Valdo18Celeri21Martins27Antonio28Borges31Buga

Manager: Marcinho Guerreiro

57'▲Joelson←▼Felipe Cruz

71'▲Lucas Santos←▼Andre Radija

71'▲Jorge Rocha←▼Vagalume

75'▲Tiburcio←▼Keven

75'▲Rafael Teixeira←▼Will

Maranhão substitutes

12Vitao2Ball5Railson6Santos9Joelson10Rocha11Pimentinha14Tiburcio19Teixeira22Rodrigo