Floresta 0–0 Caxias: Result & Stats | Serie C

Floresta

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Caxias

9/7/2025

Serie C · Second Stage - 1Estádio Olímpico Horácio Domingos de Sousa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Floresta42%

×Draw30%

Caxias28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FlorestaExpected goals in this matchCaxias

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

0.91

Floresta

1.17

Caxias

0.91

Floresta creates 29% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 30 away

1.00

creates per match

0.77

1.04

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Floresta

1.00

Caxias

0.77

allows per match

Floresta

1.04

Caxias

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Floresta+0.00on par

Caxias+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Floresta ↓

Caxias →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

34%66%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Floresta or draw

72%

Floresta or Caxias

70%

Draw or Caxias

58%

Winning margin

Floresta wins by 2+

18%

Caxias wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Floresta 1+ goals

69%

Floresta 2+ goals

33%

Floresta 3+ goals

11%

Caxias 1+ goals

60%

Caxias 2+ goals

23%

Caxias 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Floresta (draw refunded)

60%

Caxias (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Floresta at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.04 · 55 matches

Caxias away — creates 0.77, concedes 1.33 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Floresta attack 1.00 + Caxias defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.17

Caxias attack 0.77 + Floresta defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Floresta scores more

42%

level

30%

Caxias scores more

28%

Floresta at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Floresta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'

23'

46'

57'

63'

Gustavo Nescau← Welder

63'

Mossoro← Vinicius Guedes

74'

Gustavo Henrique← Lorran

74'

Douglas Skilo← Iago

78'

Thiaguinho← Romarinho

78'

Rubens← Jeam

87'

Igor Dutra← Mateus Ludke

87'

87'

90+3'

90+5'

Floresta

Caxias

1

2

3

33

6

5

▼

Lorran

23

▼

Guedes

10

Bastos

25

▼

Calyson

11

▼

Iago

19

▼

Welder

12

Dheimison

2

▼

4

31

13

17

▼

14

8

10

9

▼

Jeam

30

▼

Romarinho

Manager: Leston Júnior

78'▲Thiaguinho←▼Romarinho

78'▲Rubens←▼Jeam

87'▲Igor Dutra←▼Mateus Ludke

87'▲Pablo←▼Diego Matos

Floresta substitutes

22Raphael6Furlan11Thiaguinho15Dutra16Castro20Mingoti18Martineli19Rubens21Vitinho27Ramos28Pablo29Rodrigo

Manager: Júnior Rocha

63'▲Gustavo Nescau←▼Welder

63'▲Mossoro←▼Vinicius Guedes

74'▲Gustavo Henrique←▼Lorran

74'▲Douglas Skilo←▼Iago

87'▲Igor Torres←▼Calyson

Caxias substitutes

32Golas4Henrique7Rolim9Nescau15Ronei16Skilo44Douglas17Torres21Kelvyn28Ribeiro99Mossoro

Match Recap: Floresta vs Caxias

Floresta and Caxias drew 0-0 in Serie C on September 7, 2025.

The match was played at Estádio Olímpico Horácio Domingos de Sousa in Horizonte.

Floresta vs Caxias — Serie C 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Floresta vs Caxias