Floresta 1–1 ABC: Result & Stats | Serie C

Floresta

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

ABC

Jeam 45'

Joaozinho 90'

7/26/2025

Serie C · Round 14Estádio Olímpico Horácio Domingos de Sousa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Floresta39%

×Draw31%

ABC30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FlorestaExpected goals in this matchABC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.07

0.91

Floresta

1.07

ABC

0.91

Floresta creates 18% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 53 away

1.00

creates per match

0.77

1.04

allows per match

1.15

creates per match

Floresta

1.00

ABC

0.77

allows per match

Floresta

1.04

ABC

1.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Floresta+0.00on par

ABC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Floresta ↓

ABC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–113%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Floresta or draw

70%

Floresta or ABC

69%

Draw or ABC

61%

Winning margin

Floresta wins by 2+

16%

ABC wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Floresta 1+ goals

66%

Floresta 2+ goals

29%

Floresta 3+ goals

9%

ABC 1+ goals

60%

ABC 2+ goals

23%

ABC 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Floresta (draw refunded)

56%

ABC (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Floresta at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.04 · 55 matches

ABC away — creates 0.77, concedes 1.15 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Floresta attack 1.00 + ABC defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.07

ABC attack 0.77 + Floresta defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Floresta scores more

39%

level

31%

ABC scores more

30%

Floresta at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Floresta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'

45'

50'

53'

61'

61'

Matheus Martins← Jonatha Carlos

62'

Gustavo Ramos← Gustavo Xuxa

70'

Guilherme Martineli← Romarinho

70'

Rubens← Jeam

79'

Anderson Rosa← Wallyson

79'

Joaozinho← Octavio

81'

Rodriguinho← Guilherme Nunes

81'

Igor Dutra← Mateus Ludke

83'

Jenison← Patric

90+4'

Gustavo Ramos

90'

Joaozinho

Floresta

ABC

12

Paulo

2

▼

4

23

6

13

▼

Octavio

8

Maranhao

25

▼

Juninho

20

▼

Carlos

19

Ytalo

11

▼

Wallyson

1

Dalton

2

▼

4

31

13

17

28

8

▼

Nunes

10

▼

Xuxa

9

⚽

▼

Jeam

30

▼

Romarinho

Manager: Leston Júnior

62'▲Gustavo Ramos←▼Gustavo Xuxa

70'▲Guilherme Martineli←▼Romarinho

70'▲Rubens←▼Jeam

81'▲Rodriguinho←▼Guilherme Nunes

81'▲Igor Dutra←▼Mateus Ludke

Floresta substitutes

12Dheimison22Cesar11Thiaguinho14Rodriguinho15Dutra16Castro18Martineli19Rubens20Antonio25Mourao27Ramos29Rodrigo

Manager: Evaristo Piza

61'▲Bruno Leite←▼Juninho

61'▲Matheus Martins←▼Jonatha Carlos

79'▲Anderson Rosa←▼Wallyson

79'▲Joaozinho←▼Octavio

83'▲Jenison←▼Patric

ABC substitutes

1Garcia3Filemon21Ian16Manoel26Rocha5Randerson10Rosa17Leite15Joaozinho7Martins9Jenison

Match Recap: Floresta vs ABC

Floresta and ABC drew 1-1 in Serie C on July 26, 2025.

Goals: Jeam (45'), Joaozinho (90').

The match was played at Estádio Olímpico Horácio Domingos de Sousa in Horizonte.

Floresta vs ABC — Serie C 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Floresta vs ABC