Flora W 0–5 Maccabi Kiryat Gat W: Result & Stats

Flora W

FT

0 – 5

HT: 0 – 2

Maccabi Kiryat Gat W

8/18/2022

UEFA Champions League Women · 1st Round - Semi-finalsJuventus Training Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Flora W22%

×Draw18%

Maccabi Kiryat Gat W59%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Flora WExpected goals in this matchMaccabi Kiryat Gat W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

2.60

Flora W

1.56

Maccabi Kiryat Gat W

2.60

Maccabi Kiryat Gat W creates 67% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 3 away

0.80

creates per match

2.00

3.20

allows per match

2.33

creates per match

Flora W

0.80

Maccabi Kiryat Gat W

2.00

allows per match

Flora W

3.20

Maccabi Kiryat Gat W

2.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Flora W+0.00on par

Maccabi Kiryat Gat W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over78
Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes73
No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Flora W ↓

Maccabi Kiryat Gat W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–25%

0–35%

0–43%

1

1–02%

1–16%

1–28%

1–37%

1–45%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–27%

2–36%

2–44%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–23%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

92%8%2.5

78%22%3.5

59%41%4.5

39%61%

Double chance

Flora W or draw

41%

Flora W or Maccabi Kiryat Gat W

82%

Draw or Maccabi Kiryat Gat W

78%

Winning margin

Flora W wins by 2+

10%

Maccabi Kiryat Gat W wins by 2+

39%

Team goals

Flora W 1+ goals

79%

Flora W 2+ goals

46%

Flora W 3+ goals

21%

Maccabi Kiryat Gat W 1+ goals

92%

Maccabi Kiryat Gat W 2+ goals

73%

Maccabi Kiryat Gat W 3+ goals

47%

Draw no bet

Flora W (draw refunded)

27%

Maccabi Kiryat Gat W (draw refunded)

73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

67%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Flora W at home — creates 0.80, concedes 3.20 · 5 matches

Maccabi Kiryat Gat W away — creates 2.00, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Flora W attack 0.80 + Maccabi Kiryat Gat W defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.56

Maccabi Kiryat Gat W attack 2.00 + Flora W defence 3.20 → ÷2 → 2.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Flora W scores more

22%

level

18%

Maccabi Kiryat Gat W scores more

59%

Maccabi Kiryat Gat W at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Maccabi Kiryat Gat W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff