Flora Tallinn 2–2 Tallinna Kalev: Result & Stats

Flora Tallinn

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Tallinna Kalev

3/10/2024

Meistriliiga · Round 2Sportland Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 105+ matches

Flora Tallinn72%

×Draw17%

Tallinna Kalev11%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Flora TallinnExpected goals in this matchTallinna Kalev

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.45

0.86

Flora Tallinn

2.45

Tallinna Kalev

0.86

Flora Tallinn creates 185% more chances

Season form · 127 home / 105 away

2.50

creates per match

1.00

0.72

allows per match

2.40

creates per match

Flora Tallinn

2.50

Tallinna Kalev

1.00

allows per match

Flora Tallinn

0.72

Tallinna Kalev

2.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Flora Tallinn+0.00on par

Tallinna Kalev+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Flora Tallinn ↓

Tallinna Kalev →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–18%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–18%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–15%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Flora Tallinn or draw

89%

Flora Tallinn or Tallinna Kalev

83%

Draw or Tallinna Kalev

28%

Winning margin

Flora Tallinn wins by 2+

49%

Tallinna Kalev wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Flora Tallinn 1+ goals

91%

Flora Tallinn 2+ goals

70%

Flora Tallinn 3+ goals

44%

Tallinna Kalev 1+ goals

58%

Tallinna Kalev 2+ goals

21%

Tallinna Kalev 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Flora Tallinn (draw refunded)

86%

Tallinna Kalev (draw refunded)

14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Flora Tallinn at home — creates 2.50, concedes 0.72 · 127 matches

Tallinna Kalev away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.40 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Flora Tallinn attack 2.50 + Tallinna Kalev defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 2.45

Tallinna Kalev attack 1.00 + Flora Tallinn defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Flora Tallinn scores more

72%

level

17%

Tallinna Kalev scores more

11%

Flora Tallinn at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Flora Tallinn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff