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Flora Tallinn vs Sogndal — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Flora Tallinn
Flora Tallinn
FT
2 – 2
Sogndal
Sogndal
2/26/2020Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3EJL Jalgpallihall

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Flora Tallinn35%
×Draw26%
Sogndal38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Flora Tallinn
1.27
Sogndal
1.33

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 6 home / 9 away

creates per match

Flora Tallinn
1.33
Sogndal
1.33

allows per match

Flora Tallinn
1.33
Sogndal
1.22

finishing

Flora Tallinn+0.00on par
Sogndal+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 52Over: 4852%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes: 53No: 4753%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Flora Tallinn ↓

Sogndal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Flora Tallinn or draw
62%
Flora Tallinn or Sogndal
74%
Draw or Sogndal
65%

Winning margin

Flora Tallinn wins by 2+
15%
Sogndal wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Flora Tallinn 1+ goals
72%
Flora Tallinn 2+ goals
36%
Flora Tallinn 3+ goals
14%
Sogndal 1+ goals
74%
Sogndal 2+ goals
38%
Sogndal 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Flora Tallinn (draw refunded)
48%
Sogndal (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Flora Tallinn at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

Sogndal away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.22 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Flora Tallinn attack 1.33 + Sogndal defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.27

Sogndal attack 1.33 + Flora Tallinn defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Flora Tallinn scores more
35%
level
26%
Sogndal scores more
38%

Sogndal at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Sogndal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: Flora Tallinn 2–2 Sogndal

Flora Tallinn and Sogndal drew 2-2 in Friendlies Clubs on February 26, 2020.

The match was played at EJL Jalgpallihall in Tallinn.