Flora Tallinn 3–0 Nõmme United: Result & Stats

Flora Tallinn

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Nõmme United

3/7/2026

Meistriliiga · Round 1A. Le Coq Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Flora Tallinn72%

×Draw17%

Nõmme United11%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Flora TallinnExpected goals in this matchNõmme United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.38

0.82

Flora Tallinn

2.38

Nõmme United

0.82

Flora Tallinn creates 190% more chances

Season form · 127 home / 28 away

2.50

creates per match

0.93

0.72

allows per match

2.25

creates per match

Flora Tallinn

2.50

Nõmme United

0.93

allows per match

Flora Tallinn

0.72

Nõmme United

2.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Flora Tallinn+0.00on par

Nõmme United+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Flora Tallinn ↓

Nõmme United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–18%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–18%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–15%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Flora Tallinn or draw

89%

Flora Tallinn or Nõmme United

83%

Draw or Nõmme United

28%

Winning margin

Flora Tallinn wins by 2+

49%

Nõmme United wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Flora Tallinn 1+ goals

91%

Flora Tallinn 2+ goals

68%

Flora Tallinn 3+ goals

42%

Nõmme United 1+ goals

56%

Nõmme United 2+ goals

20%

Nõmme United 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Flora Tallinn (draw refunded)

86%

Nõmme United (draw refunded)

14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Flora Tallinn at home — creates 2.50, concedes 0.72 · 127 matches

Nõmme United away — creates 0.93, concedes 2.25 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Flora Tallinn attack 2.50 + Nõmme United defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 2.38

Nõmme United attack 0.93 + Flora Tallinn defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Flora Tallinn scores more

72%

level

17%

Nõmme United scores more

11%

Flora Tallinn at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Flora Tallinn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff