Flora III 0–6 Tallinna Kalev II: Result & Stats

Flora III

0 – 6

HT: 0 – 4

Tallinna Kalev II

8/1/2024

Cup · Round of 64Sportland Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Flora III22%

×Draw15%

Tallinna Kalev II63%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Flora IIIExpected goals in this matchTallinna Kalev II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.02

4.95

Flora III

3.02

Tallinna Kalev II

4.95

Tallinna Kalev II creates 64% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 10 away

3.25

creates per match

2.90

7.00

allows per match

2.80

creates per match

Flora III

3.25

Tallinna Kalev II

2.90

allows per match

Flora III

7.00

Tallinna Kalev II

2.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Flora III+0.00on par

Tallinna Kalev II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over98
Under2

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes94
No6

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Flora III ↓

Tallinna Kalev II →

0–00%

0–10%

0–21%

0–31%

0–41%

1–00%

1–11%

1–22%

1–33%

1–44%

2–00%

2–11%

2–23%

2–34%

2–45%

3–00%

3–11%

3–23%

3–34%

3–45%

4–00%

4–11%

4–22%

4–33%

4–44%

Most likely 2–4 (5%) · grid covers 49% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

100%0%1.5

100%0%2.5

98%2%3.5

94%6%4.5

86%14%

Double chance

Flora III or draw

37%

Flora III or Tallinna Kalev II

85%

Draw or Tallinna Kalev II

78%

Winning margin

Flora III wins by 2+

11%

Tallinna Kalev II wins by 2+

45%

Team goals

Flora III 1+ goals

95%

Flora III 2+ goals

80%

Flora III 3+ goals

57%

Tallinna Kalev II 1+ goals

99%

Tallinna Kalev II 2+ goals

95%

Tallinna Kalev II 3+ goals

83%

Draw no bet

Flora III (draw refunded)

26%

Tallinna Kalev II (draw refunded)

74%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

93%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Flora III at home — creates 3.25, concedes 7.00 · 4 matches

Tallinna Kalev II away — creates 2.90, concedes 2.80 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Flora III attack 3.25 + Tallinna Kalev II defence 2.80 → ÷2 → 3.02

Tallinna Kalev II attack 2.90 + Flora III defence 7.00 → ÷2 → 4.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 63%?"

Flora III scores more

22%

level

15%

Tallinna Kalev II scores more

63%

Tallinna Kalev II at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Tallinna Kalev II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff