Flora III 0–14 Flora Tallinn: Result & Stats | Cup

Flora III

0 – 14

HT: 0 – 9

Flora Tallinn

12/12/2021

Cup · Round of 32Sportland Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Flora III9%

×Draw10%

Flora Tallinn82%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Flora IIIExpected goals in this matchFlora Tallinn

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.98

5.50

Flora III

1.98

Flora Tallinn

5.50

Flora Tallinn creates 178% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 7 away

3.25

creates per match

4.00

7.00

allows per match

0.71

creates per match

Flora III

3.25

Flora Tallinn

4.00

allows per match

Flora III

7.00

Flora Tallinn

0.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Flora III+0.00on par

Flora Tallinn+0.00on par

Total goals

Over97
Under3

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes86
No14

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Flora III ↓

Flora Tallinn →

0–00%

0–10%

0–21%

0–32%

0–43%

1–00%

1–11%

1–22%

1–35%

1–46%

2–00%

2–11%

2–22%

2–34%

2–46%

3–00%

3–11%

3–22%

3–33%

3–44%

4–00%

4–10%

4–21%

4–31%

4–42%

Most likely 1–4 (6%) · grid covers 50% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

100%0%1.5

99%1%2.5

97%3%3.5

91%9%4.5

80%20%

Double chance

Flora III or draw

18%

Flora III or Flora Tallinn

90%

Draw or Flora Tallinn

91%

Winning margin

Flora III wins by 2+

Flora Tallinn wins by 2+

67%

Team goals

Flora III 1+ goals

86%

Flora III 2+ goals

59%

Flora III 3+ goals

31%

Flora Tallinn 1+ goals

99%

Flora Tallinn 2+ goals

96%

Flora Tallinn 3+ goals

87%

Draw no bet

Flora III (draw refunded)

10%

Flora Tallinn (draw refunded)

90%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

85%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Flora III at home — creates 3.25, concedes 7.00 · 4 matches

Flora Tallinn away — creates 4.00, concedes 0.71 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Flora III attack 3.25 + Flora Tallinn defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 1.98

Flora Tallinn attack 4.00 + Flora III defence 7.00 → ÷2 → 5.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 82%?"

Flora III scores more

level

10%

Flora Tallinn scores more

82%

Flora Tallinn at 82% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 82% does not mean "Flora Tallinn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff