Flora II 13–0 TJK Legion II: Result & Stats | Cup

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Flora IIExpected goals in this matchTJK Legion II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

7.88

0.91

Flora II

7.88

TJK Legion II

0.91

Flora II creates 766% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 3 away

9.43

creates per match

0.67

1.14

allows per match

6.33

creates per match

Flora II

9.43

TJK Legion II

0.67

allows per match

Flora II

1.14

TJK Legion II

6.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Flora II+0.00on par

TJK Legion II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over98
Under2

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Flora II ↓

TJK Legion II →

0–00%

0–10%

0–20%

0–30%

0–40%

1–00%

1–10%

1–20%

1–30%

1–40%

2–01%

2–11%

2–21%

2–30%

2–40%

3–04%

3–13%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4–07%

4–17%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 4–0 (7%) · grid covers 32% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

100%0%1.5

100%0%2.5

98%2%3.5

93%7%4.5

81%19%

Double chance

Flora II or draw

99%

Flora II or TJK Legion II

98%

Draw or TJK Legion II

Winning margin

Flora II wins by 2+

93%

TJK Legion II wins by 2+

Team goals

Flora II 1+ goals

100%

Flora II 2+ goals

99%

Flora II 3+ goals

95%

TJK Legion II 1+ goals

60%

TJK Legion II 2+ goals

23%

TJK Legion II 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Flora II (draw refunded)

99%

TJK Legion II (draw refunded)

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Flora II at home — creates 9.43, concedes 1.14 · 7 matches

TJK Legion II away — creates 0.67, concedes 6.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Flora II attack 9.43 + TJK Legion II defence 6.33 → ÷2 → 7.88

TJK Legion II attack 0.67 + Flora II defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 98%?"

Flora II scores more

98%

level

TJK Legion II scores more

Flora II at 98% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 98% does not mean "Flora II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'

35'

39'

45+1'

48'

49'

61'

63'

69'

74'

79'

89'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff